Saturday, August 10, 2013

Fraud of TV recommendations

One thing that has not changed in the market for last few years is how easily TV media recommendations can fool an average crowd. I think this has become a norm for an average Indian from days of Doordarshan to believe whatever said in TV has certain percentage of credibility (thankfully some haircut has been given to the credibility factor).

Let us decode how would you have fared if you had heeded the advice of so called great technical analyst Sukhani. Let me give you a chronological record of his advise on TV:

2 July : Mkt momentum on bulls' side, follow this uptrend (Buy Reliance Capital and Aurbindo Pharma)
3 July: See strong resistance at 5900; mkt to be choppy (not even a 1 day gap to change views - wow!)
4 July: Intermediate mkt trend on downside; trade intraday
5 July: Correction over; Nifty may cross 5900; go long
Lot of loss making observations in between which I do not want to waste time upon. Then another gem.
23 July: Nifty target at 6200; stay long
29 July: Nifty heading lower; holding 6100 looks difficult
7 August: Nifty to hit sub 5000 eventually; don't hold longs.

Now how would you describe the whole set of contradictions above - would you term this as a confused analysis. You might but I would term it as a fraud that is perpetrated everyday on an average viewer. These soothsayers say something that they hardly believe in and worse: opposite to their own views. There are scores and scores of evidence I can put which will show that it is almost profitable if you take an opposite view of what is said. Instead of confusing yourself with these astrologers who seem to have powers of the Creator, be very clear what you want to do. If you want to invest for long term, take a MF route or build positions in top 30 stocks on dips. If you are a trader, build your trading capabilities not through the conventional charting route but through simple methods created at exploring market inefficiencies. Very sorry to say but charts have lost most of the profit capturing power due to their wide range use. Now you can also classify my blog as similar to that of what is shown on TV. My only answer is it is built on utmost honesty and I would not be able to influence people as much as they do. That is why they abuse the powers that they have.

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